🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."